Introduction

Whether you're a seasoned sports bettor or just starting your journey, understanding the nuances of matchups and betting “edge” can take your strategy to the next level. At HOFBets, we’ve built tools designed to simplify this process while delivering powerful insights. Today, we’ll dive into two of our most essential features: Matchup Grades and Edge. Together, they help you identify high-value plays and maximize your returns.

Let’s break it all down.

What are Matchup Grades?

In the example given above, we can see that Karl Anthony Towns has an F Matchup Grade for the over on his rebounds prop. This would imply the team he is playing, in this case the Timberwolves, are likely to be strong in offensive and defensive rebounding statistics and therefore make it difficult for KAT to cover 14 rebounds.

Upon further investigation into the matchup, we can confirm that the Timberwolves are indeed a top 10 rebounding team, and are ranked 3rd in the NBA in rebounds allowed to Centers (this will vary based upon the player's position). Inversely, if we were to flip this stat and look at the under on 14 rebounds, this would be an A matchup, as the strong opposing rebounding makes it favorable for KAT to not get as many rebounds as he usually would. The Matchup Grade allows us to get an idea of the overall rankings and trends of the opposing team for that specific prop, as selecting different props will result in different grades.

• How It Works: Matchup Grades are calculated by combining player stats, opponent team rankings and trends. For example, if an NBA team struggles against perimeter shooters, a sharpshooter like Steph Curry might receive an A+ NBA matchup grade for that game. Similarly, an NFL matchup grade might highlight a running back’s advantage against a team with poor rush defense.
• Where to Find It: Matchup grades can be found on a few pages in the HOF Bets app, notably the Leaders tab, Trends tab, and the Player stats under Matchup.
• Why It Matters: These grades make it easy to spot opportunities at a glance. They’re a powerful way to refine your betting strategy, helping you focus on high-potential plays and skip the ones that don’t add value.

Pro Tip: Prioritize A and B betting matchup grades for relatively safer plays. Risk-takers can explore C or D grades, but keep in mind these may mean a tougher matchup, which makes the prop harder to hit.

What is Edge?

“Edge” is your secret sauce in sports betting—the key to spotting when the odds are stacked in your favor. It’s all about comparing what the sportsbook thinks will happen to what the data says is more likely to happen. Here’s the breakdown:

1. Implied Probability: Every betting line comes with implied odds, which is just a fancy way of saying, “Here’s how often the sportsbook thinks this bet will hit.” For example, if a sportsbook offers odds of +100, they’re saying there’s about a 50% chance of it happening.
2. Historical Hit Rates: This is where our tools shine. We look at real-world data—how often similar bets have hit in the past. Taking into account different time periods such as last 5 games, last 10 games, games over the whole season, and only head to head games can provide you with different hit rates of the same prop, as it is important to get a broader picture.
3. Crunch the Numbers: The magic happens when you subtract the sportsbook’s implied probability from the actual probability. Let's look at an example:

Edge = 90% − 48% = 42%

Breaking this down, we see that:

• Time period is Last 10 games, which has a hit rate of 90%
• The odds are given as +110, which means a derived probability of 48%
• We subtract the derived probability from the hit rate to get the Edge

Boom! That 42% edge means this bet is better than the sportsbook is giving it credit for. In other words, you’re playing with relatively more value on your side.

So, why does this matter? Because betting with an edge is what separates smart bettors from the rest. It’s not about guessing or relying on gut feelings—it’s about using data to find potentially undervalued plays. Even small edges add up over time, turning your bets into a long-term winning strategy.

Pro Tip: Betting with an edge isn’t about winning every time—it’s about consistently making smarter choices. Bigger edges are great, but always balance them with smart bankroll management. Betting with edge is about long-term success, not short-term gambles.

Combining Matchup Grades and Edge for Maximum Impact

When you combine betting matchup grades with edge, you’re not just betting smarter—you’re betting strategically. Here’s how to maximize these tools:

1. Start with Matchup Grades: Use the Matchup Grades to spot favorable opportunities. Look for A and B grades in your chosen sport, whether it’s an NFL matchup grade or an NBA matchup grade.
2. Evaluate the Edge: Check the Edge for your shortlisted plays. A higher edge means better value.
3. Apply Filters: Customize your search using filters to refine your results. Focus on games, players, or odds, matchup grades, positions, and more that match your betting preferences.
4. Place Data-Driven Bets: Whether you’re building a parlay or focusing on singles, the combination of high Matchup Grades and solid Edge ensures you’re making decisions backed by data.

Ready to Elevate Your Betting Strategy?

The next time you open the HOF Bets app, look for the Matchup Grades and Edge features! Matchup Grades are spread throughout the app providing context, while Edge is centrally located in the Trends tab. Whether you’re looking for an NFL matchup grade to break down Sunday’s action or an NBA matchup grade for the week’s best plays, you’ll have everything you need to bet smarter.

Take the guesswork out of betting research. Use HOF Bets promo code BLOG today for 50% off or visit us at hofbets.com to start making smarter bets backed by data!

Bet Smart. Stay Ahead.

Cheers,
Brian @ HOF Bets